Those political pundits who were spiking the ball on the 5-yard line are about to look foolish.

While you were sleeping, the Yemenis entered the chat by blowing up one of Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil fields. Iran has bombed the U.S.’s Bahrain base to smithereens. And Dubai may be renamed “Bye-bai” after Botox-filled influencers cry into their Instagram feeds.

But, hey! This war won’t last long… just like all the others.

I’ll save the rest of my righteous vitriol for tomorrow’s Rude. But today is chart day, the first business day of every month.

What is war good for?

Besides getting kids from Appalachia needlessly blown up, war is good for the metals, energy, and bonds. Oddly enough, crypto doesn’t seem to be joining the party. Bitcoin and Ether’s charts are uglier than a drunk carpenter’s thumb.

Gold, silver, and copper are rallying hard this morning and will continue to do so. Oil is up, but you knew that already. And while only 2% of the oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz heads for the U.S., remember that oil is a globally priced asset. So investing in oil services companies may offset the imminent gas price hike.

And here’s the problem for the President that will work for you: the dollar and t-bonds will rise on safe haven status. Isn’t that deliciously ironic?

I’ve written many times that you can’t save the world, but you can save yourself. And you can’t stop this war, so take advantage and invest accordingly.

I’m starting to believe that smart investing is just doing the opposite of whatever “the people” think is a good idea.

With that, let’s head to the charts.

S&P 500

We look like we’re rolling over a bit, with the SPX falling below its 50-day moving average. But it’s still not enough to get me long-term bearish by any means.

But thanks to the Iran operations, we’re down about 1% this morning. The next week will be important for evaluating where the SPX is heading.

For now, the target remains to the upside, at 7,613.

Nasdaq Composite

The Nazzie’s chart is a bit dodgier. We’ve rolled over, and the 50-day moving average is pointing downward. We’re still not long-term bearish.

However, a downside target of 20,236 is now lit. If and how software stocks recover will have a big effect on the index.

Russell 2000 (Small caps)

***New Monthly Closing Price Record of 261.41***

The Russell rebounded and is leading the major markets. This is very bullish.

It still has an upside target of 323.94, with a new upside target that’s not yet activated.

The US 10-Year Yield

The 10-year yield finally fell about 30 basis points (0.3%), a boost for the President. We’ve only ticked back up 2 basis points this morning, so no harm done yet.

If we have prolonged action in the Middle East, I expect yields to pick back up. Currently, the downside targets are 3.83% and then 3.69%.

Dollar Index

Now it gets tricky. Though yields have fallen, the dollar remains elevated. This morning, higher energy prices and safe-haven bids are lifting the USD.

We still have a downside target of 79.75, but that may change, depending on outcomes in the Middle East.

USG Bonds

We’ve had a sharp rally in TLT, against my expectations. It’s funny how, when the U.S. attacks a foreign country, foreign investors rush to the safety of U.S. bonds. There’s no definitive target yet, but I’d eyeball 94.50.

Investment Grade Bonds

From the last two months:

Admittedly, this chart looks excellent. From here, the next target is a whopping 140.85. But I don’t buy the story in the long term.

High Yield Bonds

From six months ago:

I don't know if HYG can go much higher. Stalled at these nosebleed levels, a turnaround may be in order soon.

Same as it’s been for a while, but we finally didn’t hit a new high this month.

Real Estate

VNQ saw a big rally in February, up about $5. The next upside target is 99.80.

Energy: West Texas Intermediate (Oil)

Needless to say, oil is up this morning to $72. The next upside target is 75.88. That should fall in a few days, especially after the Yemenis hit Saudi Arabia’s big oil field.

Base Metals: Copper

Copper is up this morning to $6.07. The upside target remains $6.93.

Precious Metals: Gold

***New Monthly High of 5,278.05***

Gold keeps climbing, and will do so for the foreseeable future, especially with this new incursion into Iran. Right now, we’re trading just under $5,400, about to take out the upside target of $5,415.

Stay bullish, my friends.

Precious Metals: Silver

***New Monthly high of $93.82.***

Silver has recovered almost completely, and the chart is bullish. We now target $113. Both gold and silver mining stocks look robust, most with upside targets activated.

Cryptos: Bitcoin

BTC was down another $10,000 last month. My downside target remains $55,420.

Cryptos: Ether

ETH broke through the $2,010 target and sits at $1,950. I still hate the chart, though we may see a recovery coming. ETH must break its correlation to BTC to thrive.

Trad Asset Class Summary

Crypto Class Summary

Crypto was crushed in February, with Litecoin losing the least at 6.62%. The rest were double-digit losers, with Dogecoin down 10.36%, Bitcoin down 14.35%, Ripple down 14.66%, and Ethereum down 14.94%. Monero performed the worst, down 16.49%.

Wrap Up

Commodities look like a sound trade, while cryptocurrencies look vulnerable. Equities may suffer further, though I’m not ready to place my bets on that scenario happening yet. Bonds, ironically, will prosper as a flight to safety if the war gets prolonged.

Finally, let us laugh, courtesy of the X-verse:

If you don’t laugh, you’ll cry.