I blame Matt Insley.

Paradigm Press’s fearless leader has a penchant for scheduling these wonderful subscriber events the day before the arse falls out of the market. And true to form, the day after the fantastic Philly conference with Jim Rickards and the gang, the market took a swan dive from its nosebleed levels.

After last year’s Omega Wealth Circle event in Nashville, the same thing happened. But luckily, the market recovered before the negative gamma massacre on January 30th.

Of course, I jest. Matt would never do that purposely, even if he could. But as I watched the market fall from my perch in Riyadh, I thought, “Geez, I’m sure glad I stayed out of the miners.” To remind you why I sold, my friend and colleague Matt Badiali’s 25% trailing stop was hit for most of my holdings. I sold out of the few that weren’t set off because I knew where they were going.

Yes, the overall market took a hit on Friday. But the miners got absolutely pole-axed on the back of a jobs report that wasn’t particularly thrilling. To me, this was “selling to the sound of trumpets,” so to speak.

The problem is that when the selling goes that hard, it disrupts the market’s underlying pricing structure. Because of this, I think we have more downside to go, particularly in the metals and miners. Of course, if The Donald, Bessent, and new Fed Chair Warsh decide otherwise, all bets are off.

And since the South Korean stock market (KOSPI index) opened down 8.4% early this morning, halting trading, there’s no telling what’s going to happen on the US open today. To remind you, South Korea has a heavy semiconductor weighting in its index.

First, I’m going to walk you through what I’m thinking. Then, I’m going to show you my Top 5 of my colleagues’ Philly picks and why I like them.

Gold and Silver

Here’s the latest daily chart for spot gold. Let me walk you through it.

First, you’ll notice the candlesticks have been in a downtrend since January 30th. You could argue that we’ve traded in a sideways range since late March, but that’s starting to look like a rather long “dead cat bounce.” On Friday, we closed below the range's low, and that doesn’t augur well. The RSI reading below 50 since March 12th confirms bearish momentum.

The arrow pointing to $3,981.02 is an estimate of the next down leg’s target. That, combined with Jeff Currie’s $4,000 call - he is the former head of Goldman Sachs’ commodities department - makes a down move look more like an inevitability rather than a probability. But take heart: after the down move, Currie thinks we’re heading up to $10,000.

Silver’s case is more difficult.

Silver crashed so hard during the negative gamma squeeze event on January 30th it set up an eye-watering downside target of $36.82. To be clear, I don’t think we’ll get all the way there. But there are two other downside targets of $63.41 and $58.26. The former target will inevitably be hit, if only due to the excessive volatility inherent in the Devil’s Metal. (And now you know why it’s called that. Silver and natural gas are the market’s widowmakers.)

What I’d really like is for silver to overshoot the $58.26 target and fall into the $50-$55 range. At that point, I’d back up the truck and buy all the miners I could.

The Miners

Back on February 8th, I wrote about why I was selling out of my positions. I also published a table with my returns. I'm republishing the table below with two additional columns: Friday’s closing price and the additional downside relative to the prices at which I sold.

Needless to say, I’m glad I stayed out. And thanks to the weakness of the underlying metals, I think there’s more pain on the horizon.

So I’ll stay on the sidelines for a bit longer… at least until the metals themselves start to recover.

Top 5 Philly Picks

With that said, there are some picks from Philly I’m really keen on.

Let’s start with Zach Scheidt’s pick of ATI. Its last 4 earnings reports exceeded expectations. It’s in a clear uptrend, with an immediate target of $206. Longer term, we’re looking at $302.

Another of Zach’s picks is Caterpillar (CAT). An American icon, CAT has beaten earnings in the last 3 quarterly reports. It’s also in an uptrend, with an upside target of $1,110.41.

Matt Badiali’s pick of CVI is a great pick for the energy sector. CVI missed its Q1 earnings target. But with the war in Iran far from over, CVI has upside targets converging on $45, a 36% potential gain. The weekly and monthly targets are even more promising, but first things first.

Next is Byron King’s Materion (MTRN) pick. The specialty metals industry may be the place to be. Along with Zach’s ATI (above) and CRS (not shown here) ideas, MTRN is in a solid uptrend. Its upside target isn’t as juicy, looking only for a 15.5% gain. But with few exceptions, MTRN has been relentlessly bullish over the past 9 months.

Last, let’s look at another of Matt Badiali’s picks: DK. Delek is another energy company in a bull trend. If it breaks above $50, the next target will be $84. That’s a 74% upside.

Wrap Up

I can’t wait until the metals market clears and resumes its uptrends. Until then, these 5 picks from Paradigm’s best can help tie you over.

While Friday’s market was one to forget, there’s a lot to look forward to.