Let me open with 2 numbers from Virginia’s 1st Congressional District.

At this point in last year’s governor's race, 5,075 modeled Republicans had cast early ballots. This year, 2,275 have, a 55% drop.

Democrats fell too, from 6,665 to 5,544, a 17% drop. Swing voters fell by 33%.

Christian Heiens, who tracks early-vote data, posted the figures this week. His read is simple. Nobody is storming the polls to punish Republicans. So, for now, stories of a “Blue Wave” are lamestream media fairy tales.

However, there’s still a massive issue coming up in midterms: The GOP base isn’t showing up, and now we’ve got some data points to prove it.

But first, a caveat: these numbers come from precisely 1 district, early in the count. “Modeled” means an educated guess about each voter’s party.

And importantly, Republicans tend to vote on Election Day. So treat this as a flashing warning light, rather than a verdict written in stone.

But the warning light matches the national dashboard.

The Tide Goes Out

Sailors fear the ebb more than the storm.

A storm announces itself. Sailors see it coming. They reef the sails and run for port.

But the ebb is quiet. The water slips away a few inches at a time. Then one afternoon, the rocks they sailed over all summer are sitting under their keel.

That’s what’s happening to the Republican coalition. A sort of Red Ebb, if you like.

The pundits are watching the horizon for a blue wave, but they're looking for the wrong tide. Democrats aren’t surging. Instead, the Republicans are draining away. Unfortunately, the math works out the same either way.

The national polls agree. In a Washington Post-ABC poll this spring, 52% of Republicans called this midterm more important than past ones. In September 2022, 72% said so. In October 2018, 63% did.

Republicans lost the House in 2018. With that kind of enthusiasm on display, it looks like they’re heading for defeat in 2026.

Why the Base Is Sitting Out

Every leader rules through a coalition. If they reward that coalition, it keeps them in power. If they let it down, the coalition doesn’t have to switch sides. It can merely stay home and not vote.

The 2024 coalition that got The Donald back in the White House was broad. Farmers, Catholics, rural families, and the young men who listen to Joe Rogan all came aboard. Each came for something.

Farmers came for markets, but they got tariffs, war-driven high-priced diesel and fertilizer bills, and cheap beef imports from Argentina and Brazil. Trump's approval among rural voters has dropped significantly since he took office. The vice president of the Iowa Farmers Union said he has never seen farmers angrier. Who can blame them?

Catholics came for respect. Then the president picked a public fight with the first American pope. For better or for worse, the increasingly liberal Pope Leo XIV holds an 84% approval rating among Catholics. Not even a pugilistic politician like The Donald wins the fight.

Rogan’s listeners came for “no more wars.” Seven months into the “two weeks to flatten the Iranians” war, Rogan told his audience something they already knew: “A lot of people feel betrayed.”

None of these voters has become a Democrat. But voters are suffering from acedia, which the desert monks called the noonday demon. It isn’t hatred of the good. It’s a weariness with it. They still believe, but they just can’t get off the couch.

That’s the Red Ebb. But in this case, fatigue is numerically equivalent to rebellion.

The base hasn’t sunk. It’s merely running silent, like Captain Ramius’ submarine in The Hunt for Red October. It won’t show up on sonar until someone gives it a reason to surface.

But it looks like the President doesn’t want to give them a reason.

“I’m Not Running”

That brings me to the president’s recent speech at the UN.

Talking about Iran, he said Tehran is “waiting to see how I do on the midterm election. The Republican Party is running, and I’ll be helping them, but I am not running.”

His name may not be on the ballot, but he’s certainly running. This is about reconfirming a mandate (through Congressional elections). Incumbents always have a tough task come midterms. But The Donald’s reckless policies, both foreign and domestic, have made the goal of winning damn near impossible to achieve.

Back in January, he told House Republicans what was at stake. If they lost the midterms, he said, “they’ll find a reason to impeach me.” Let’s face it, he’s making that far too easy for the Democrats.

I don’t read the UN line as indifference. Every second-term president faces the same trap. He’ll never personally face voters again, but his coalition still has to. When the man at the top says he isn’t running, some of his voters may hear that as permission to sit this election out.

The Cost of an Ebb

If the tide goes out on November 3rd, here are 5 disastrous consequences.

Impeachment. A Democratic House can impeach with a simple majority. But Trump’s actual removal will take 67 senators, and that’ll never happen. However, a trial would eat months of the calendar and most of the agenda. The third time won’t be the charm for the Democrats, but it’ll wreck the remainder of Trump’s presidential term.

The Supreme Court. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats need 4 more to take control. Clarence Thomas is 78 years old. Samuel Alito is 76. If a seat opens under a Democratic Senate, it can sit empty until 2029. This would be the Merrick Garland saga in reverse. The next president would fill the vacancy. If that next president is a Democrat, we’ll get a justice who reads the Constitution nothing like Justice Scalia did… for 30 years. Look upon Ketanji Brown Jackson and despair!

Subpoena season. Every committee gets a new chairman with a gavel and a grudge. The war, the family business deals, and the Epstein files would each get a congressional hearing.

The purse. Congress funds the war and could end the tariff emergencies. A Democratic House would have veto power over both. Tehran knows this, and that's why they’re not suing for peace.

A stage for the Left. After Zohran Mamdani won New York's mayoral race last year, Trump said the choice was between “communism and common sense.” A Democratic House will hand its most energetic wing the microphone and the committee seats. Ideas that once lived in liberal university faculty lounges will get a hearing, then a bill, and then a budget line. Socialism will have arrived in America by committee, without a shot fired.

And The Donald will be a two-year lame duck, with an early and ugly fight over the party’s future.

The Honest Counterpoint

Markets often like gridlock. After all, a Congress that can’t pass anything can’t break anything either. Stocks did fine in 2019.

But 2019 didn’t have a hot war in the Gulf, $40 trillion in debt, and the bond vigilantes daily smacking Scott “The House” Bessent in the mouth. Gridlock is cheap when nothing’s happening. It would be prohibitively expensive in the midst of a market meltdown.

Wrap Up

If you need a reason to look on the bright side, here it is: Ebbs don’t last. The tide turns.

And unlike the ocean, this tide answers to people. Americans over 55 are the most reliable midterm voters in the country.

Pollsters say the enthusiasm gap is closing as Election Day nears.

The pundits will spend 6 weeks staring at the horizon for a wave. Instead, they should be watching the waterline.