
Posted June 30, 2025
By Sean Ring
“That’s A Disgusting Assessment of the Conflict!”
I’m fried from roaming around Lago d’Orta this weekend. What a lovely place!
Basilica di San Giulio, on an island in Lago d’Orta, Credit: Sean Ring
Between the sun, fun, and food, I can’t recommend it enough. It’s near Lago Maggiore, but Lago d’Orta is one of Italy’s hidden gems.
Silver and gold got monkeyhammered last night at the trading open in Asia, but have recovered somewhat. I’ll wait until tomorrow’s monthly asset class report to flesh out what we can see going forward this year.
Today, enjoy the mailbag. Some former subscribers are very unhappy with my analysis of the Israel-Iran situation. Let’s start there. Laugh with your cup of joe this morning!
Two Karens Are Big Mad… and Other Objections.
That was a disgusting assessment of the Middle East conflict, and more importantly, off track in the assessment of our President’s actions. If this type of update continues, I want no further emails from Paradigm. All your Paradigm daily emails are incredibly geared toward promoting gold and silver in hopes of increasing their value. What a waste of money my buy-in to your advice was. Cancel my subscription. Overload of bunk. Elizabeth H.
After reading Sean Ring’s Rude Awakening every morning for quite some time now, I find myself totally appalled and shocked at his take on the Iran/Israel situation. Sean, if you can’t grasp the reality of what is actually going on in the Middle East, then you are truly showing us what a total idiot you really are, and there is no further need for me to waste my precious morning hours reading your drivel. Wow. Thankfully, I still have the common sense and brilliant analysis of Jim Rickards to read because Sean, you have f**king oatmeal where others have their brains. Consider me unsubscribed. I have plenty of Paradigm Press subscriptions to read and educate me. I don’t need your idiocy. Laureen L.
Do you have any evidence that nothing was destroyed? I see six large holes in the ground with tens of thousands of pounds of explosive having detonated below the earth's surface in close proximity to an underground lair. I think it's possible some people just can't admit what happened is largely the best case scenario. A massive success in regards to world peace and nuclear nonproliferation. Do you think the Green Movement will make a comeback in Iran, or is there little hope as the crazy mullahs murdered all of their opposition? I imagine Iran's recent military response would have been bigger if it had more of a military left. Ben M.
Ok, there are so many ways to come at this, but I’ll just pick the first and most obvious. Now that America has bombed Iran, Iran is incentivized to build a bomb. Why would I write such a thing?
Because North Korea has nukes on ICBMs that could reach the West Coast today, and yet, America doesn’t strike. Pakistan has a bomb. India has bombs. China and Russia have bombs. Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of NATO's Military Committee, said the following, "I'm absolutely sure if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine, kicking them out. We would have. But they have nuclear weapons." The entire world now knows the key to getting America (and NATO) off its back is to acquire nuclear weapons. So that was Stupid Reason #1 for bombing Iran. Now that we've got that out of the way, let’s look at the “damage” at Fordow.
At Fordow, America was only trying to seal the entrances and exits in such a way that anything below ground was unreachable. Sure, everything that was nailed to the floor was buried. But Iran only had about 900 pounds (408 kg) of enriched uranium. Do you think they didn’t move it, especially as the U.S. and Israel telegraphed their move? So, Ben, you can call it a success if you like. We simply have different ideas of what constitutes success.
Finally, we know Israel bit off more than it could chew. The damage the Iranians inflicted on Tel Aviv and the rest of Israel is between $12-$20 billion, the highest ever recorded. As of June 18, intelligence assessments cited by The Washington Post and other outlets suggest Israel’s current missile defense inventory could sustain defense for only 10–12 more days at the then-present attack levels. It’s fair to say that Israel’s response would’ve been much larger if Tel Aviv hadn’t been so damaged.
Did Donald Trump’s PAC and other Republican PACs take $200 million from the Adelson family? Yes. Yes, they did. Would that influence Trump’s decision-making? I think so, but Miriam Adelson must expect it to affect his decision-making.
Last, but not least: we don’t promote gold and silver, thinking you’ll increase their value. The central banks have done the heavy lifting so far. Next, it’ll be financial institutions. And then, finally, it’ll be retail. We’ve been pounding the table about gold, silver, and (especially in the Rude) platinum for at least 18 months now. Here’s a simple year-to-date chart to explain why:
Year-to-date, platinum is up 47.02%. Gold is up 23.14%, and silver is up 21.80%. Compare that to the SPX (up 5.19%) and the Nasdaq Composite (up 5.15%), and you can see why we’re on the metals bandwagon. Ignore that to your detriment.
The Price of Oil
Hi, Sean.
You used the price of oil as part of the underpinning of your thesis about an unseen economic weakening, but I have some doubts about this component. I don't know, of course, but you have two huge macro trends or anticipated trends that might change the signals being sent by the price of oil. First, there is an ongoing move toward alternative energy sources. Great or not, it's still increasing the supply of energy. Second, whether already here or not, there is a push to increase the supply of oil, which creates downward pressure on the price of oil. There is also a move toward bringing nuclear back. While not here yet, that would also put downward pressure on the price of oil. Historically, oil has been close to the only source of energy and thus was a very good proxy for economic activity. I have my doubts that's still the case. What do you think?
Jim S.
Hi Jim, thanks for writing in.
Your analysis is spot on from the supply side. The move towards alternative energy is most keenly felt by China, which is buying less oil than it used to. (China uses coal plants to keep its EVs on the road.) And yes, most of OPEC exceeded their production quotas. In February, Kazakhstan exceeded its quota by up to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd). OPEC+ output exceeded its quotas by over 100,000 bpd in March 2025. Iraq was over its quota by 100,000–200,000 bpd in March–April 2025. So, yes, there is loads of oversupply.
From the demand side, where I’m arguing from, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that demand growth is expected to decelerate for the remainder of 2025, following a strong first quarter, due to weaker economic activity worldwide. Trade tensions, especially the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. and retaliatory measures by other countries, are dampening economic growth and, consequently, oil demand. Finally, the recent de-escalation of Middle East tensions—such as the ceasefire between Iran and Israel—has removed the risk premium from oil prices, contributing to the decline in prices.
Hope that helps!
Libertarians vs. Democrats
Many Democrats are low-IQ voters who are easily manipulated. Over the last nine years, Trump has recruited logical and hardworking Democrats. I understand Democrats because I was raised as one. But most libertarians are not low-IQ voters, and until recently, I did not understand them. I have met enough of them, and a pattern has evolved. Most are scared to be wrong. So they do not stand for anything. But they get their pleasure from condemning anybody who is actually in the arena. Jim R.
Maybe. However, Jim, I’d say that most people are sick and tired of the sheer incompetence or naked corruption of the man in the government arena. Let me give you a specific example of a “Leave Me the F*ck Alone” Libertarian applauding a government policy. Back in 2010, I had been in Singapore for a year, and it was a terrible one. The crisis had hit, and no one had made any money. Do you know what the SG government did? They cut the top tax rate to 8%. In essence, they said, “Pay us enough (single digits!) to keep the government running and then take the rest and spend it in the private sector.” Can you imagine the USG or any other Western government doing the same? Far from condemning the SG government, I was giving them a standing ovation all year long. Of course, as I was still an American citizen at the time, I had to pay Uncle Sam the difference. And yes, I was howling at the idiocy of the “Congress Creature” in the arena. Take from that what you will.
Deep State
I eagerly read a large portion of Paradigm missives. Yet I am not an investor. I seek understanding and wisdom from smart people. And I’m not disappointed. Agreement is not essential to learning. But when the Deep State (yes, capitalized) is not factored in with a greater weight, accuracy suffers. Specifically with warring. Zeke L.
Zeke, I’m sorry if you haven’t read the Rude for very long, but Deep State (CIA/NSA/FBI) is assumed to be the overriding factor in every overseas move of the USG.
I, Pencil
Hi Sean, Can't thank you enough for including the link to the "I, Pencil" essay. Can't believe I never came across it until now (apologies if you've included it in the past—I might have bypassed it). It should be required reading for any senior in high school or an introductory economics class. Positively brilliant in its simplicity to teach a complex topic. It would go a long way to solidifying "young skulls full of mush" (boy, do I miss Rush). Best, Brian H.
Sean, would it be incorrect to view the government as the Pencil Sharpener? Grinding away at all things Pencil. Once again, inquiring minds… David K.
Brian, I couldn’t agree more. I’m so glad you enjoyed it. David, yes, that’s a great way to look at it! All, here’s the link to “I, Pencil.” I can’t encourage you to read it enough. It takes only a few minutes of your time.
Wrap Up
Hope you had a great time this morning. I’ll see you tomorrow with a bunch of charts and some good explanations.

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