Politicians lie. They can’t help it. And sometimes the universe creates a situation where those lies are exposed… like today, with energy.

Pols from both sides of the aisle declared that the U.S. was “energy independent.” And that’s simply not true. It’s a political construct that requires us to ignore the stuff that makes up the “energy.”

I think about energy in two buckets: transportation and electricity. Nearly all oil goes into the transportation bucket. Coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro go into the electricity bucket. And the only way they converge is in electric vehicles… but that’s another essay.

That dichotomy is why “energy independence” is nonsense. And now, as oil supplies decline and prices soar, we see the result. 

If you convert all the energy to megajoules, then yes, we are energy independent. In 2025, the U.S. produced 109.7 trillion megajoules but only consumed 92.9 trillion megajoules! Et voila! energy independence. 

But that’s like reporting anything with wheels as a vehicle. Technically correct, but a baby carriage isn’t the same as a semi-truck.

We hit that supposed independence mark in 2019. But it’s a false equivalence, as we see today in the oil price.

This price reflects the truth of the energy market. It’s intertwined, and it’s global.

As of May 8th (the most recent data available), U.S. imports stood at 7.4 million barrels per day. About 78% was crude oil, and 22% was a mix of oil products like gasoline and jet fuel.

As you can see from this chart, we have massively reduced oil imports recently because none is available due to the war in Iran.

During the same period, the U.S. exported 13.3 million barrels per day. About 40% of the exports were crude oil. About 16% was propane, 12% was distillate, and 19% were other oils. That means, even though we have a net export of 5.9 million barrels per day, we still import 432,000 barrels of crude per day. 

Confusing, I know. But try to run kerosene in your lawn tractor, and you’ll see why it’s so important.

Of course, when most people talk about energy independence, they mean gasoline prices. And the U.S. produces the most oil (and gasoline) in its history. 

Here’s what that means for Americans. We have the lowest gasoline prices among all Western countries:

That’s what energy independence gets you… the least expensive gasoline in Western countries. But be prepared, because higher gasoline prices are coming. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the worse it’s going to get.