If a mining company spends half of its corporate presentation explaining the value chain of the metal that they want to find…then they don’t have any. 

That’s one of many tell-tales of the kind of companies that we want to avoid.

When metal bull markets kick off, like the one we are in today, promoters come out of the woodwork. Their goal is to sell you their dreams for your cash. It’s important to remember that most of these companies fail. 

The problem for most investors is that the promoters can tell an excellent story. Our job is to understand the kind of value the company offers. And if the only value is in the metal that they want to find, that’s a problem.

Today, there are over 1,000 mining companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Toronto Venture Exchange. The Toronto exchanges are the largest global venue for public mining companies.

Here’s the dirty secret of mining exploration companies…about 70% of junior mining projects fail. Most of the companies go broke. We don’t want to participate in that experience…

That’s why I use a simple indicator to tell me when a company is “ripe” to invest in. We want a discovery. And the best confirmation of a discovery is stock performance. Here’s a good example:

This is a chart of a tiny exploration company called Onyx Gold (TSXV: ONYX). The company has projects in Ontario and the Yukon Territory. The company hit a large, high-grade gold system in Ontario, and the company’s stock soared. 

This chart is confirmation (for me) that Onyx is worth owning. 

In April 2025, Onyx Gold announced some amazing drill results. The company cut 34.5 meters of rock that contained 3.5 grams per ton (g/t) gold. Within that longer run were high-grade intervals, including 9.5 meters at 13.9 g/t and 3 meters at 38.5 g/t. 

Those are excellent drill results. The average gold mine operates on less than 1 g/t (back when gold was around $2,000 per ounce). At $2,000 per ounce, one gram of gold is worth about $62. At $5,000 per ounce, a gram of gold is worth about $156. 

The rock Onyx drilled contains far more gold than that. And with the higher gold price, it looks even better. 

And the market responded. The tiny company raised $8 million at $0.98 per share. And then, on the back of more good drill results, it raised another $26 million at $2.43 per share. That includes the giant miner Gold Fields, which now owns 9.9% of the company. 

Some investors might look at the chart and say, “We missed it.” However, mining exploration takes time. And those initial drill results derisked this tiny company. Now they have an asset. 

More importantly, serious geologists and engineers from a giant mining company gave them their stamp of approval. That adds yet another layer of derisking for us. 

In this market, there will be opportunities like Onyx. And not just in gold. We need to look across the metals – gold, silver, copper, uranium, and strategic metals. 

Our best gains come from companies that prove they have something worth owning. And I love a little extra protection from strategic investors and major mining companies. 

That’s my secret to finding great investments in junior mining.