“The most extraordinary thing in the world is an ordinary man and an ordinary woman and their ordinary children.” G.K. Chesterton wrote that, and I think of it most mornings as I sit down to write to you.

My life is far less exciting than it used to be, and I couldn’t be happier.

Sure, last week in Nashville, I got to spend time with my colleagues and closed down a bar or two. But those nights are rare now.

I bring this up because I’m in a state of bewilderment over Jensen Huang.

The man co-founded Nvidia in 1993. He’s been its only CEO for 33 years. He built a company worth about $4 trillion. But as I write this, NVDA’s board has met late into the night to decide whether to fire him.

Since Sunday, the stock has shed roughly $600 billion. Shares fell another 8% after hours yesterday. The board hasn’t announced its decision yet. With a nine-hour gap between Piedmont and California, we won’t know until after you’ve read this.

This Isn’t a Sermon

I won’t lecture you about Jensen’s morals. That’s between him, his wife, and his priest.

Besides, I’m an Italian Catholic. We don’t wallow in our sins the way Irish Catholics do. We do a bad thing, we step into the box, the little man behind the screen forgives us, and we go get a coffee.

What offends me isn’t the sin. It’s his abject stupidity.

No Rich Man Is Ugly

I lived in Singapore for six years. I met Pam after the first one. That first year was, by any measure, insane.

Paradigm’s Presbyterian standards keep me from describing the tomfoolery between Western executives and the locals in any detail. So I’ll just tell you this.

When French banks send their bankers to Asia, part of the orientation is a tour of the girly bars. For the wives. They want the ladies to see where their husbands will entertain clients. Since their dreadful Revolution, the French treat adultery less as a sin than as a sport. The wives shrug.

Every Western man learns a lesson in Asia, if he has any sense. When a beautiful young woman finds you fascinating or attractive, ask yourself why.

I never once thought I was being mistaken for Brad Pitt.

Jensen is 63. He doesn’t look like a K-pop star. He looks like your accountant in a leather jacket, trying really hard. If a woman flatters a man like that, he should check his wallet, phone, and security clearance.

“No rich man is ugly,” said Zsa Zsa Gabor. She would know. That line alone should’ve put Jensen on guard.

Invert, Always Invert

Charlie Munger’s favorite rule was “Invert, always invert.” Don’t ask how to succeed. Ask how you’d fail, then don’t do those things.

I use it more and more. Before my Nashville speech, I listed everything I could say to blow up the talk. Then I didn’t say any of it.

If you’re Jensen Huang, your list writes itself. Near the top sits one line: “Get tangled up with a woman U.S. officials think works for Beijing.”

And yet, that’s exactly what happened.

Her name is Alice Huang. (No relation.) She’s an executive at Megaspeed, a Singapore data center firm that calls itself a core partner of Nvidia’s cloud business in Asia. Washington has probed Megaspeed since 2024 over whether it steered Nvidia chips into China. According to The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials concluded in 2025 that she was targeting Jensen.

On Sunday, Jensen told his staff he was “deeply sorry” for being “unfaithful to my wife.” Then the Times reported a second affair, this one with a senior Nvidia executive who reports to him.

Is Alice Huang a spy? I don’t know. Neither does anyone writing about it. It doesn’t matter. It looks terrible, and in a $4 trillion company with no board chair and no succession plan, looks are all it takes.

I’ve watched friends in Asia blow up their marriages, some of them on purpose. I’ve never seen a man blow himself up this publicly.

Paradigm’s Own Nostradamus

On November 5th in Nashville, my friend and colleague Enrique Abeyta opened his talk at the Paradigm Shift Summit with Prediction #1. He said Nvidia would lose investors more money over the next three years than any stock in history. Three to four trillion dollars. Enough to look like a bear market for the whole stock market by itself.

Then he asked the room who owned Nvidia. About a third raised their hands. He asked who owned an index fund. Another third.

That was his real point. If you own an S&P 500 fund, you own NVDA. It’s one of the biggest weights in the index.

Enrique gave it three years. It didn’t take three weeks. Ok it happened a bit quicker than he suspected, but he nailed the direction.

My charts concur:

If you look at the weekly NVDA chart above, we’re already through that top level of support. The next level down is over 40% farther down. That doesn’t mean the stock will collapse this week. It just means that’s the direction of travel and a possible magnitude of loss.

The Joke Inside the Joke

If you listen to both sides of the chip fight, you’d think nobody wants this deal.

The Donald doesn’t want to sell Nvidia’s best chips to China. Emperor Pooh Bear has told China’s companies to leave Nvidia’s chips alone and buy from Huawei instead. China wants its own champion, not an American addiction.

Jensen knew that, and so did Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Last year Lutnick said, “You want to sell the Chinese enough that their developers get addicted to the American technology stack.” That made sense to me. It’s inversion again. If you don’t want China to build a rival, keep it fed.

So who gains if Nvidia’s chief is suddenly radioactive in Beijing and Washington alike?

My buddy Adam Sharp asked the same question in the Daily Reckoning this week. He doesn’t buy the cartoon spy story. He thinks the scandal may be about something far bigger than one man’s bad judgment. And he puts a number on what Nvidia stands to lose to Huawei.

Writing like Adam’s makes me proud to work here. He asks the hard question. Are we for free markets only when America wins?

Some folks are happy mercantilists. America wins, everyone else loses, end of story. Fair enough.

But if you’re angry at China’s state-owned champions, you should feel a little uneasy when the present administration buys stakes in American companies, too. The State picking winners looks the same in any language.

Wrap Up

My colleague Dave Gonigam has already guessed the ending. In his telling, the AI bubble doesn’t burst from debt or circular financing. It bursts because of a scandal no one “could have possibly seen coming.” Then comes the rescue.

Dave says he can’t wait for his Trump account, stuffed with ten shiny “SuperIntelligence Bonds.” Each one holds a perfect 60/40 mix: 60% converted AI shares, 40% brand-new 100-year Treasuries.

He’s joking. I think.

Here’s what you can take from all this. You don’t need to own the most famous stock on Earth. You do need to know whether you own it by accident. Look inside your index funds this week. Decide whether to own it or not on purpose.

And if a beautiful stranger in Singapore finds your opinions on semiconductors riveting, go home. Your ordinary wife and your ordinary children are the most extraordinary thing you’ve got.

Chesterton was right. Jensen should’ve read him.

Have a great day ahead.

P.S. I’m selling my PBR stake today. It’s more than 25% off its high. The fundamental case is sound. I just don’t want to wait around for its recovery as other opportunities arise. Also, in today’s Morning Reckoning, I cover another American CEO who’s changed his tune lately. I hope to see you there.