For two years while I lived in London, I dated a beautiful Hungarian woman. She took me to Budapest, its capital; Eger, the center of its wine region; and - are you ready for this - Kiskunfélegyháza, her hometown. 

I learned a few Hungarian words. The language may be the toughest to learn in the Western world. It’s somehow related to Finnish, through the Uralic language family, which is completely separate from the Indo-European family (which includes English, German, Italian, and the Slavic languages).

I love their goulash and the creamy version of their famous cucumber salad, uborkasaláta, shortened to ubisali, especially when it’s washed down with a Dreher beer.

Budapest is one of the great cities of Europe, safe and clean, and unobstructed by refugees trying to make it like their hometown. It’s much like my favorite city in Poland, Wroclaw, though it’s much bigger. Budapest is absolutely worth visiting if you get the chance.

My old girlfriend - I can’t believe over 20 years have passed - moved to London because then Hungary was an economic backwater, but EU rules allow freedom of movement. (Of course, the UK was still in the EU.) She used to talk about her home country often, which is when I first heard about Viktor Orbán.

Like most Hungarians, she was a fan. And when he went on Tucker Carlson last year, I had figured out why. Orbán was a Hungarian freedom fighter, arrested and tortured by the Russians at the end of the Cold War, but held no grudges. He knew Russia wasn’t going anywhere, and he had to deal with them, a far more mature attitude to diplomacy than, say, the Ukrainians or Americans display towards Russia. Orbán also seemed like the kind of guy I’d enjoy having a beer with.

But people get tired, and 16 years is a long time to run a country.

Viktor Orbán found out on Saturday that, while the Hungarian people still agreed with most of his ideas, they were ready for change and pulled that lever.

In a vote that nobody in Brussels dared dream about two years ago, Péter Magyar's Tisza Party delivered a historic two-thirds supermajority in Hungary's parliamentary election. Turnout hit 79.5% — the highest in a generation, driven in large part by Hungarians who had never bothered to vote before. They bothered this time.

Orban didn’t contest the results. He immediately conceded and congratulated his opponent. Not much of an autocrat, is he?

Finally, after 16 years, the Hungarian Model has a new operator. But is it a case of “Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss?”

Who Is Péter Magyar?

My friend and colleague Ray Blanco gave me a chuckle yesterday when he wrote on our editorial Slack channel: “Imagine running some dude called Joe American here.”

Ray was correct to point out that “Magyar” is Hungarian for “Hungarian.” It must’ve been a major advantage, right alongside the fact that he was in Orbán’s party for over 20 years!

So, before you pop the Champagne, a word of caution, particularly for those expecting a Brussels-friendly liberal to waltz in and reverse everything Orbán built.

Magyar isn't that guy.

He's a former Fidesz insider who turned on the party after exposing a child abuse cover-up. He’s not looking to integrate smoothly into the European establishment. Magyar burned his bridges and decided it was worth it. He ran on anti-corruption and economic renewal, not rainbow flags and open borders. (The EU already signaled this will be their first big ask for releasing Hungarian funds.)

On the Ukraine issue, the gap between Magyar and Orbán is narrower than the headlines suggest. Magyar won't send weapons or troops to Kyiv. He holds veto power over Ukraine's EU accession but says he won't use it as a hostage. He voted for the €50 billion EU aid package, while Orbán blocked it. Call it a diplomatic upgrade, rather than a policy reversal.

On Russian energy, he's equally clear-eyed. Hungary gets 93% of its oil from Russia, up from 61% in 2021, over a 50% increase on Orbán's watch. Magyar's position: he won't cut that off overnight. Geography and economics make Russian energy "cheaper and safer" in the short term. Gradual diversification, yes. Instant decoupling, no. He's even open to calling Putin directly about energy prices.

The Paks-2 nuclear power plant deal with Russia? It’s under review. He may cancel it if the numbers don't pencil out.

This is competent conservatism, not Hungarian-style liberalism.

Why Orbán Lost

The narrative will be written as a defeat for right-wing populism. That's only half right.

Orbán's downfall was economic, not ideological. The man who once promised a "work-based economy" delivered 16 years of stagnant living standards and enough corruption to prompt people to call time on his tenure. The elites got richer. The people didn’t.

Culture wars have a shelf life. You can run on national identity, anti-immigration, and civilizational threat for years. But once people can't afford groceries, the messaging stops landing. Orbán didn't lose because Hungary went woke. He lost because the economy stopped delivering, and the corruption became impossible to ignore.

Those record-turnout first-time voters weren't making an ideological statement. They were sending the butcher’s bill.

The Geopolitical Fallout

The reverberations are immediate and significant.

Putin loses his most reliable European ally, who blocked EU decisions, watered down sanctions packages, and gave Moscow a say over Western consensus. Hungary moves from a blocker to a cooperator overnight, and €18 billion in frozen EU funds suddenly has a path to release. However, that amount of cash comes with strings attached Magyar won’t easily pull.

Trump loses a right-wing populist he personally championed. However, there are rumors Trump wants Orban installed as his man in Brussels. Oh, that would be delicious!

For the EU, it's a genuine windfall, though Magyar's realism on Russia and Ukraine means Brussels shouldn't expect a fully compliant new member. He'll be easier to work with. He won't be a pushover.

Wrap Up

Magyar now owns what he campaigned against.

The voters who showed up Saturday wanted two things: less corruption and cheaper lives. If Magyar delivers on both, the Hungarian Model gets a genuine reboot. If the cronyism merely rotates personnel, the next wave of first-time voters won't vote for him.

Orbán believed the system he built was bigger than the people it was supposed to serve.

Magyar would be wise not to make the same mistake.